2012 Predictions

I have no idea what is going to happen this year, except that I don't think 2012 will be 365 days of "muddle through." It will either be a good year (resulting in Obama being reelected) or a really bad year (resulting in Romney being elected). If it's bad, I think that the US is in better shape to weather the storm since de-leveraging has been going on for 5 years now (at least on the household level), while many other countries are just getting started. One thing I don't worry about is that "Mayan Calendar" bullcrap.

OK, some predictions:

• Ron Paul will have a public meltdown after being asked about his racist newsletters again. His campaign ends by February and he will not run on a third party ticket.
• Obama/Clinton will not happen. It will still be Obama/Biden.
• Kindle Fire 2.0 takes the top spot in the tablet wars.
• The end of RIM.
• An Angry Birds movie.
• Nintendo files for bankruptcy due to their continued collapse in market share and a vast unsold inventory build.
• Southeast Texas will be plagued by serious power outages as millions of dead trees fall on power lines during spring thunderstorms.
• I thought Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal would leave the Euro this year. I think they will kick the can down the road another year. Europe will not be a good place to be as the riots continue and various "red army" factions reemerge.
• A number of recently constructed, never-occupied high-rises in China and Dubai will collapse. Huge swaths of this vacant real estate will be condemned due to shoddy construction.
• A "gay scandal" erupts in the White House centered around a departed adviser.
• A supernova will appear that is visible to the naked eye.
• Student loan debt will become a primary campaign issue. Easy student loans for questionable majors and fields of study will be eyed closely, and in many cases eliminated.
  
• There will be no war with Iran. A proxy civil war will continue in Syria.