2010 Predictions: Fail

A review of my 2010 guesses, which were even worse than 2009:

Apple's Jesus Tablet, as it's called at Businessweek. I'm a Jobs fanboi, but the hype for an unannounced, unspec'd product is reaching absurd proportions. It's amazing to me that not one photo of this has been leaked, even with product launch less than a month away. I am skeptical, particularly of the claims that it will revolutionize everything. Why? The mobile bandwidth issue. Networks are already clogged just from the iPhones. (At least that's what they tell us.) These tablets will inherently use much more bandwidth, slowing everything down further. I'm not saying the tablet concept is doomed or won't be a huge success, I am just saying that I don't think its time has come yet.

It hit the market in April, and I stand by my prediction that it will revolutionize jack. Magazine publishers had such high hopes. Too bad, the publishing revolution failed. Sure, Apple sold 8.5 million iPads so far, but over the same period 366 million PC's were sold. Tablets remain an expensive and very fragile novelty. And about the bandwidth issue... AT&T put the kibosh on that pretty quick after seeing what happened with people watching YouTube over 3G.

Apple's very good at misdirecting the chattering crowd. Example: Until the day of the iPhone's official launch, the "experts" were certain that it would have a scroll wheel. The fanbois completely missed the haptic interface. Maybe the big event in San Francisco next month is Jobs making his last hurrah and announcing that the Beatles catalogue will finally be available on iTunes?

That event finally came to pass later in the year, but it wasn't exactly a secret during the week before the announcement.

The mobile platform war will end 2010: 1) Apple 2) Android 3) Symbian 4) RIM. Palm will be dead; Windows Mobile 7.0 will go nowhere. This is a repeat of the early 1980s PC OS wars, and Apple and Google will be the winners. Too bad, Microsoft. You lose.

I think that prediction was dead-on except that 1) and 2) should be reversed. It's a shame that Microsoft failed with Windows Phone 7. It's actually pretty good.

PC wars: Who cares. They are all low-margin generic boxes made in China. People will replace their machines as needed, but many of these people will decide to pay the Apple premium or decide upon a low-cost Acer notebook or netbook with a free open source OS. In other words, what's happened so far this year will continue next year. Desktop PCs are so 1998.

I think that prediction was dead-on.

Shoeshine boy says: "Buy gold!" It will end the year below $800. The gold bugs on Mish and Calculated Risk will grow increasingly shrill and conspiratorial.

Epic fail on the price of gold. Hit on the "shrill and conspiratorial" comments. They are foaming at the mouth. Shoeshine boy is even more active than last year.

Oil: Bubblelicious once again! Below $40 by December 2010.

Hit on the bubble, fail on the price and timing. The bubble is still growing and will pop over the next 6-8 months.

Unemployment: Trending between 8-9% nationwide. Unemployment continues in the double-digit range in CA, MI, FL, NV, IL and AZ.

Hit.

Dubai: The Great Collapse continues. The dreams of an Arab Paris (it used to be Beirut) on the Saudi peninsula will be dashed when it's learned that even though Dubai real estate is marked 90% off, much of it is uninhabitable.

Hit, but that prediction was too obvious.

Melonhead and the Evil Dwarf: Melonhead stays in power and continues to rant about smelling sulfur while the Venezuelan economy collapses around him. The Evil Dwarf is booted out in a non-violent movement after the mullah's cave in to pressure. The Iranian nuke program will continue, but with less vitriol from Tehran leaders.

Melonhead is an now an official dictator and is increasingly paranoid. The Evil Dwarf is still in power. 50% hit.

George Bush: He still won't be living on that supposed Bolivian ranch.

Hit. Why do people believe this crap?

Barack Obama: Poll numbers improve along with the economy throughout 2010.

Epic fail.

Texas Governor's Race: Former Houston mayor Bill White will be the Democrat nominee and wins the general vote. Long-range prediction: Joe Biden will announce he is resigning at the end of the first term and Obama will chose White as his running mate.

Fail on the general vote for White, hit on the nominee. But Biden's plans remain to be seen.

US House: Republicans regain control.

Hit.

US Senate: Democrats retain control.

Hit.

Rising anger over the "two America's": Those who have government jobs and those who don't.

Big hit. Taxpayers are seething.

Bankrupt: Sears, Palm, Landry's, more California municipalities.

75% fail. Only Palm went belly-up. I don't think Sears will be around much longer, and it should be obvious that a number of California municipalities will have to go into bankruptcy. The money just isn't there.

Washed-up country acts have Branson to fall back on when they get old and don't want to live on the road. Washed-up rock acts need their Branson. In 2010, Prince, Led Zepplin and The Who will sign on as house acts for major Las Vegas casinos.

I predict this every year. Fail.

With these results I should go to Toastmasters, hire a publicist and build a really nice website. I'd be as successful as Gerald Celente.