Apple's iPad is available in a few days (maybe). It will be a colossal flop. Students of marketing and computer design will study the iPad catastrophe for decades, particularly Steve Jobs's "Gosh! Gee whiz! Aren't we just the cleverest, most revolutionary people ever?" keynote back in January.
Their pricing model is wrong... few will pay 4-5 times more for the same (but larger!) app you can get for 99 cents on the iPhone. Few will pay $19/mo for an online publication. (Hint: iPad won't save your local newspaper.) Most importantly, people will be reluctant to purchase and carry around an iPad (or any other tablet) once they start hearing stories about people dropping it and shattering the screen. (A smartphone is a computer that you can easily carry around in your pocket. A tablet is a fragile device that will need a separate case.) And no camera?
Apple's gushes about the "incredible, amazing, and magical" iPad sound really desperate. They remind me of Michael Jackson's La La Land interviews with reporters when he thought he was King of the World but didn't realize that everyone was tuning in to see a freakshow.
Apple's Newton was a pimple on an elephant's rear end compared to the disaster about to be unleashed.
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5 comments:
I guess it depends upon what you intend to do with it...I just have not figured out how it fits into my life....but will watch to see how others benefit. The market keeps getting more and more fragmented into niche products.
What I've not figured out about any of these innovations is when I'm supposed to be able to use them. When I'm at work, I have access to a real computer. When I'm at home I have access to a real computer. When I'm traveling between the two, I need to STFU and drive. So when am I supposed to be wowed by either an iPhone or it's big brother?
I am an Apple fanboy, starting with a SE/30 in 1989.
That said, IMHO the iPad is an underpowered, overpriced toy with no clearly defined role.
For the same price as an iPad, a used Macbook is far more useful.
I used a Newton for years. Loved it. I still can't do a lot of things with my computer and Blackberry that my Newton could.
That being said, I agree it's going to be another Newton or 20th Anniversary Mac: beautiful, it will win awards, and eventually fade away. However, I think that it is seriously going to point the industry in a new direction much like the Newton did.
What I can't understand is why nobody can make a useful tablet PC. I want one that I can bring to a meeting, pull up the presentation (inevitably e-mailed beforehand), scribble some notes on each page, and save it. No more paper handouts w/notes to keep track of. Associate it to the meeting notice on my calendar so I can find it in a heartbeat. Handwriting recognition makes searching my notes viable even if I don't know what meeting it was. Unit/screen size should be 8½x11/A4 size and borderless. Touch screen for the keyboard. Docking station for at-desk work. A real processor so that it truly is a PC. Calendar, contacts, e-mail & internet access are all there, because, well, it's my PC. Sync to a phone w/Bluetooth, and what else do you need?
Technology for this exists and is mature, and I would think the business market would be huge. All the iPhone/iPad apps added to it would be bonus.
Where is this device? It seems like an obvious development.
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