Review of 2009 predictions

My 2009 guesses were not as good as my 2008 guesses. I think I'll do a Gerald Celente and use some bizarre logic and reasoning to twist my guesses into "hits."

Oil trades below $25/barrel, briefly touching down between $10-$15. This will cause havoc within the nuttier OPEC nations. Leaders in Venezuela and Iran will be particularly stressed. The situation in non-OPEC Russia will become increasingly dire as the Russian economy goes into freefall and society breaks down. Historic crime wave in Moscow. Putin goes on some more military adventures to misdirect the restless natives and tries to hold Western Europe hostage to Russia's natural gas resources. Hugo Chavez flees to Cuba with a large horde of cash.

A big FAIL on oil prices. The Evil Dwarf in Iran and Melonhead in Venezuela are indeed looking particularly stressed.

By supporting Hamas, Iran is playing a game of chicken with Israel. Israel will launch a strike against Iran before Obama assumes the presidency. Ahmadinejad will use this as an excuse to attempt a blockade of the Straight of Hormuz, creating a brief tanker war and increasing the price of crude. The attempt fails.

Nope.

Dubai collapses, dragging down the other Emirates which are frantically trying to prop it up. Tens of thousands of formerly wealthy European speculators will be wiped out. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum will be forced to unload his prized airline to Abu Dhabi. Emirates will then be merged with Etihad. A380 orders will be canceled or deferred.

Looks like a correct guess. See here for why.

Massive societal upheavals in China as millions of laid-off factory workers are driven back to the countryside. Manufacturers around the world will find it difficult to maintain production due to supply problems of critical parts that have all been outsourced to China.

Millions of Chinese did become unemployed, but supply chain problems... not yet. I think this is still to come. By the way, have you noticed how many shelves at your local WalTargetMart are stocked with large un-nested plastic storage containers? Not Christmas containers?

Citizens of Zimbabwe finally get some limited relief after a coup is launched against Robert Mugabe. Once he is captured, he will be tortured and publicly executed after a session in front of a kangaroo court.

Zimbabwe residents did get some limited relief this year, but no coup.

Iceland clamors to join the EU, while current EU members including Italy and Greece hold talks to get out of the Euro.

Not yet. In fact, last I heard Icelanders no longer want in.

Web 2.0 bust. The majority of social networking sites will go belly-up as investors pull the plug on most of this nonsense. MySpace, Facebook and LinkedIn will be among the few survivors.

Still to come. MySpace jumped the shark big time this past year.

The Democrat-controlled Congress will become increasingly protectionist, blocking all free-tradedeals regardless of whether or not they are good for the country. Americans as a whole will become more isolationist.

Yep, we seem to be heading that way. See Steel Tariffs Show Protectionism On The Rise.

Sears Holdings Corporation files for bankruptcy protection. Eddie Lampert's expensive "Sears is a real estate play" experiment will fail as the market is flooded by a massive inventory of vacant, never-occupied commercial real estate. Once-storied Sears brands are sold off to companies such as Lowe's and Best Buy.

Still to come.

Unemployment approaches 9%.

I was too optimistic.

2009 is the year the US will get some type of nationalized medical insurance program under the guise of helping manufacturers. This will occur more quickly than people think. Manufacturers will, of course, cease providing medical insurance to employees and retirees.

Yep. The paperwork just needs to be signed.

Ballmer is fired from Microsoft. The Redmond campus experiences massive layoffs as new Microsoft management tries to "get back to basics" and focus on doing things right. Google's Mountain View offices are emptied as Google management realizes that they have wasted billions on non-producing projects.

Ballmer hasn't been fired. Yet. Microsoft did see mass layoffs, but management still has its head up its ass. Google also had layoffs, but unlike Microsoft that have their act together.

Terrorists will attempt an attack on US soil during or soon after the presidential transition.

Nope. Not unless you consider Umar Farouk "Great Balls of Fire" Abdulmutallab. Failed guess.

Residential real estate will start to bottom out during the final quarter of 2009 in many markets, including Florida, Arizona and parts of inland California. Panic selling by banks anxious to unload deteriorating houses that have never been occupied will finally establish a floor. This will not mark a recovery, but will mark the beginning of a very long trough in real estate values that will last for years. Coastal California, the Pacific Northwest and the New York-Baltimore-Washington corridor will continue to decline throughout 2009 and into 2010. On a national level real estate will be down 35% from peak, while bubble zones will be down 55-65%. The option ARMs won't blow up later this year and into 2011 for reasons explained here.

I think this was a good call. Spot-on, in fact. We'll just have to wait a bit longer to find out for sure.

2009 will mark the year when Motorola and GE get their mojo back. Palm files for bankruptcy protection. Dell, like Microsoft, becomes a punchline. PC commoditization and lack of innovation will lead to a big decline in sales.

Another good call, I think. Motorola has a big hit with Droid, GE stock has recovered. Palm has FAIL written all over it, as do Microsoft and Dell.

In Houston, Safeway attempts to unload the Randalls supermarket chain after years of mismanagement. Safeway gives up after finding no buyers. Randalls shuts its doors and few people notice. Whole Foods sees a whole lot of problems.

Still to come! Who still shops at Randalls? No one I know.

Serin gets a damn job after being threatened with eviction by his parents. He will be selling cars for Steve.

Wrong on selling cars for Steve, yes on getting a damn job. Parking cars.

Happy New Year! Don't blow off any fingers with large fireworks.