We will witness things over the next year that are unimaginable right now. Most of you already know that.
I do have one request: I wish our elected leaders would put a stop to the Armageddon talk. How about projecting some confidence? You don't need to sugarcoat the situation, but confidence means a lot. I have been extremely bearish for the past 4 years, but I don't see Mad Max coming down the road. We'll still be here in 10 years, albeit much leaner.
Some stuff you may like
Lou's YouTube Channel
Telwink
Swamplot
Lileks
Exurban Nation
James Randi
Dr. Tom, the Astronomy Guy
Eric Berger
Instapundit
Iowahawk
Dvorak
Calculated Risk
Mish
Lou's YouTube Channel
Telwink
Swamplot
Lileks
Exurban Nation
James Randi
Dr. Tom, the Astronomy Guy
Eric Berger
Instapundit
Iowahawk
Dvorak
Calculated Risk
Mish
16 comments:
How about some predictions, Lou? go crazy!
Bob,
I was hoping the dozen or so people who come by on a regular basis would go first. I've already posted a bunch of guesses, most of which will become crap. I'd like to read some more opinions.
We'll be lucky if there isn't a Vaseline shortage.
I predict within 6 months the MSM will be rife with Obama/Hoover comparisons.
I work in the financial services industry for a small outfit,
and was largely unconcerned about our shop riding out the downturn
because we refused to engage in any of the crazy underwriting
free lending that was widespread over the past few years, and continue to have exceptionally low delinquency in out credit portfolio. That was until recently
when I became aware that the govt intends to tie concrete
blocks around the ankles of the healthy institutions that
didn't engage in irresponsible lending by forcing them to
use their reserves to recapitalize the federal insurance funds, to
make up for the losses of these other reckless bastards. We just last week received a letter to this effect from our federal regulator. This not only adds a strain on our earnings in a time of exceptionally low interest rates, but also places us in peril as the economy worsens, we cant use the reserves that we built up in good times, because we have to turn those over to the govt to make up for the losses at other institutions that we had no part in causing. I think we are witnessing a great unravelling, it doesn't matter anymore if you act in a responsible manner, as a business or a taxpayer, because you will be held responsible for bailing out those who don't whether you want to or not. Its going to take us all down.
I think Rob is on the right track. Given the love fest the MSM has with Obama, they are setting him up for failure. Kinda like in The Man Who Would Be King,he'll start bleeding from the crown and they'll crucify him. Remember, love is a really close relative to hate, especially given the whacko love fest they have going on. It could turn really ugly unless the Dems are able to totally pin it on the Republicans. Still, given that the last Republican in DC left town on a horse drawn cart it will be hard.
I'm mostly worried about the developing world. I would predict an Islamist takeover in at least one Arab country over the next two years, with Egypt being a top candidate. This will be balanced out by the collapse of the Iranian regime. The big thing to worry about is of course social unrest in China.
Lou,
On top of the economy and the growing tension in the ME, I am worried about Central and South America. Turmoil within the Mexican government and the leftist dictators farther south will be allowed to continue while our attention is spent on how all of Obama's mistakes are really Bush's fault.
How long before a kidnapping in Mexico creates an international crisis between the US and Mexico?
From today's Houston Chronicle, here is something that I think we should be concerned about.
You know those FEMA camp conspiracy stories? There is something to this. The facilities exist, but I don't buy the conspiracy theories that they were built to house Americans. If Mexico collapses the river of illegals coming into the US will become a tidal wave.
Just to explain, most of these "camps" are nothing more than abandoned military facilities. People see empty barracks and chain link fences topped with barbed wire and assume the worse. There are a lot of these facilities, as anyone older than 30 knows. But I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of these were maintained for contingency purposes for worst case civil emergencies, like, dunno, the entire population of Juárez coming across the Rio Grande in the course of a week, fleeing the growing civil war. El Paso can't handle them, they aren't US citizens, they have little money, where else are we gonna put them until a solution is found?
Mexico really collapsing has always been one of those horror stories young politicians parents tell them to give them nightmares. Much like what brokers parents tell them about money market funds busting the buck being the end of the world.
It would be really ugly at first but many countries have learned to cope. Still, it's much better if it never happened.
The "badness" I unfortunately expect to see is multiple cases of people "going postal" over the next year. Killing themselves and their entire families. Attacking their former workplaces and coworkers. Maybe even going after our elected critters. There's always a low level of such cases, but people are getting mad and want to lash out.
I, for one, am planning on the Mad Max scenario.
After a huge icestorm in December, we spent about a week without power. People were stealing generators at gunpoint.
Imagine a week without any food deliveries, or trying to function in a climate of hyperinflation...
Imagine a week without any food deliveries, or trying to function in a climate of hyperinflation...
Did it twice since 2005, with the addition of having no gasoline. Things were pretty calm and orderly, although we didn't have to worry about freezing to death, just overheating.
NHSteph-
I live in northern Massachusetts (10 minutes from NH) and I was without heat or power for 5 days myself. All things considered I thought things were pretty orderly.
I saw a lot of people helping each other out, cleaning things up, with lots of open shelters. I didn't see any New Orleans / Mad Max type of behavior at all.
Re: Obama and the Mass Media.
Dawg, you are on it early. Perhaps you remember the rah-rah media cheerleading in the run-up to the Iraq War, followed some time later by a near-total turnaround in many media outlets as incessant harping and naysaying became the call of the day. Most people remember only the latter.
It could be that sooner or later the Emperor will indeed be seen to have no clothes, other than those he brought to town with him from another unnamed administration of the 1990's.
If things turn sour economically, and I see no way around it given the path that Congress is pursuing, it might be only a matter of time before the media minions turn on their Golden Boy.
Then again, avowed lefties, as many in the media are, rarely consider failure of big government to be something to denigrate. It is instead simply a signal that we didn't do enough big government. It might be hard for most of them to break that mindset, and it will be remarkable if it happens. When or if that does happen, we know we must be in deep doo doo.
I too believe there will be a turnaround on how the media treats Obama. As already mentioned, expectations have been raised so high that he can't meet them. I also believe that there is a strong possibility that could turn him into an ineffectual president, like Carter.
Politically, 2008 was much like 1976. The Democrats have won the White House following a collapse of Republican leadership. Many people just couldn't separate Ford from Nixon. The President is an outsider, with few friends in Washington. Like Carter, Obama has not used the short time he has been in Washington, to win allies. Instead, his fellow Senators have found him distant and aloof. Meanwhile, since 2006 the Democratic Congressional leadership has gelled up and knows what they want to accomplish. They feel no need to follow the President's agenda. What's he going to do, veto legislation that meets core Democratic goals?
This is what happened to Carter. The Congressional leadership politely listened to what he wanted, then ignored him. And Republicans certainly didn't run to his aid. To drive legislation, the President needs Congressional allies.
My prediction - Obama's allies are the fair weather variety. For now, all want to be seen w/him due to his popularity. But when public disillusionment sets in, they will desert him. His only saving grace may be his oratory skills. If he can use the bully pulpit to win back the public and motivate average Americans to pressure Congress, he may be able to escape being a rubber stamp.
It's already begun. I think Obama truly, but naively, thought he could get a bipartisan "stimulus" bill passed. But while he met w/Reps, Congressional Dems saw no need for bipartisanship, and drafted the bill alone. Obama quickly changed tactics, moving to the offensive against the Reps.
So who's leading whom?
Post a Comment