I am on the front lines. Over the past few weeks business has died. No one is buying our widgets. Even Brazil, which has been an excellent market for the past few years despite the massive trade barriers and paperwork their government has erected... dead. There was a brief flurry of activity the last week of September as the usual Federal agencies rushed to spend their "use it or lose it from next year's budget" money, but elsewhere it has been eerily silent. Domestic markets, international markets... everything's at a complete standstill.
Until recently the answer would be "go pound the pavement and get a new job." Based on what I am seeing right now that is going to be exceedingly difficult for most of us for a long time to come. This is the absolute worst time for Hammer #1 to fall. I am sorry to keep talking about this vague "Hammer," but I will explain it in due time.
So many bloggers have been warning about this fiasco for years. Rob Dawg, Ben Jones, Calculated Risk, even a dork like me with a lousy B.S. degree. Why is it the Smartest Guys In The Room still, to this day, claim that "no one saw this coming"?
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13 comments:
Well Lou,
You're an incredibly bright guy who runs a blog with original insight. Doesn't pay the rent, I know, but doesn't it count for something?
Instapundit's link to homemade rockets look fun. I've been into that stuff lately with the kids. We made a hairspray potato cannon and used it to fire glow stick bracelets. Looks spectacular at night. We made a tennis ball mortar fueled by lighter fluid but it was a dud by comparison. Next, after the alka-seltzer cannon, I think we'll make a carbide cannon.
Fun stuff.
Instapundit's link to homemade rockets look fun.
I saw that too. We did the Alka Seltzer in film canisters thing last year, but it never occurred to us to "rocketize" this. I read this and the first thing I thought of was "this would really be something fun for that pack to do."
Alka Seltzer + water inside a balloon is also interesting. Not as interesting as the Diet Coke and Mentos rocket, but if we did that we'd have serious liability issues. My kids have seen the videos and have been after me to do this, but it is far too dangerous.
Ditto what chickenlittle said Lou. You are a really bright guy. You never know how stuff will turn out. I could smell the ol' job coming to an end about a year ago. I've been wanting to make a change for a while and found a job teaching. Two weeks before I left super nice ridiculously high paying financial job for teaching job at somewhat less than 1/3 of the pay, (back when I was talking to you about already having lots of trouble sleeping) my wife found out she had a very aggressive form of cancer.
So we had to make some tough decisions, I left the decade plus job for a new career. So the new place is providing insurance, the wife is healing and doing well, at least well-ish, and I am loving the hardest job I've ever had.
So sometimes forced change can work out well. You never know. Just keep your options and your mind open.
Stay positive Lou.
Thanks for the compliment. Hang in there. I've seen even normal business crater. We are talking things like parking a car rather than getting new tires stuff. Stupid but there's a real desire to not spend money. I wonder if credit lines are being reduced below practical levels. I guess when you are paying so much for gas and food other things wait.
Have the kids build a trebuchet.
Lou, I want to tell you as a long time reader, that your blog's been a real pleasure and a real help. Now, I lean left of you on the political side o' things, but that hasn't mattered at all, because I appreciate your honesty and consistency. I hope all goes well for you and I wish you the best.
I have a little different view. I own a HVAC part and equipment distribution company. In other words, we sell parts, supplies and furnaces and air conditioners to contractors, hotels, facilities and industrial plants. I am a middle man. Sure many of the contractors and factories are slow, but not too many seem to be going under. Business isn't record setting, but steady with last year. I haven't had to lay off anyone yet for reasons that are not performance related. My business is very weather driven - we had a very cool summer and stil we hung in there.
With all the hurricane damage in Houston I would imagine the HVAC distributors are very busy in that area. I don't know your skill set, but if you are a hard worker and have a decent personality (which I can tell you have through your writings) you could have an opportunity in that industry. HVAC distributors (the good ones anyway) are always looking for good talent. As a matter of fact, when I hire outside salesmen I prefer that they don't have any experience in the industry, work ethic is the most important thing. Anyone can learn basic mechanical functions of the items.
Just a thought if you get the ax - and I hope you do not.
Actually, Dan has a really good point. When the economy tanks, people don't buy new because of the expense which leads them to repairing. So replacement parts can be a good line to be in. Compare how many Auto Zone's are in poor neighborhoods compared to wealthy ones.....
Paul writes,
One January I was driving south to Florida to work there during the winter. ( I'm a carpenter, and over 50 ).
I made it to Washington, mid afternoon and they were getting light snow flurries with the sun peaking through. Traffic was very light.
I took a detour off I-95 and went to Arlington National Cemetery. It was very beautiful with the snow falling and all. So many young men, most without having a family, dead in obscure Philippine islands, Italian mountain towns, Korean and Vietnamese villages.
Right now there are head wounded 20 year olds that will spend the rest of their lives in obscure wards.
I remember it when ever I feel that I have a little down(ness).
For decades, corporate American hasn't listen to us. Ditto the government.
And now the government and large corporations find themselves together with little support.
Who would of thought?
I have had, and I will will that I will have more of this great life.
My various business' are right around even YoY, none higher than +5% nor lower than -3%. Knock on wood.
Hang in there old man. Things WILL get better.
1981 or 1973-style recession?
Our business depends on people being able to drive to our locations.
Gasoline here is still subject to spot shortages (for at least another couple of weeks) and it still costs almost $4/gallon.
Wonder how many people we'll have to fire this winter.
NPR had a good interview with the former CFO of Wamu. He couldn't speak due to confidentiality but now that they went belly up, he is singing. Turns out that he was one that kept saying that they were going to blow themselves up but the other management ignored him. The reporter had confirmed with other sources that he indeed had been saying they were getting greedy and it was going to bite them in the ass.
He seemed somewhat vindicated in his tone.
Lou,
My heart hurts for you and has for the last four months.
I am so sorry you are having to deal with all of these hammers.
I can't tell you to buck up, or any other b.s.
What I can say, from experience, is to bulldog it. Just dig in and bulldoze your way through it. It's awful, I know. Just put your head down and plow through it.
Dig in, plant your legs, and push.
Unless there's nothing to push against. If that's the case, start looking.
I wish you the very best, you've
had the worst year(not the VERY worst year), but things always get better.
I'm living proof. I won't bore you with details but from what you've shared, you have your health, and the love of your children.
You will get another job, whether or not you love it is immaterial. You are a really smart, maybe brilliant guy and there is always a place for you in the workforce.
I wish you the very very best.
-Curious
yeh I have to chime in with encouragement here. I found your blog thru the Casey serin debacle, and it is, along with EN, the best result of a bad show. As a former Texan (and hoping to be one again) I appreciate the updates on Houston. I always enjoy your posts. And, aside from myself, you attract intelligent posters.
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