My spidey senses are giving me a bad feeling about Ike. This could be the one that Joe Bastardi failed to guesscast.Houstonians have been remarkably complacent today. They don't want to repeat the Rita experience. This morning we heard the path was gonna take Ike into Corpus. People relaxed. A few hours ago the line squiggled up the coast. Over at the Weather Underground,
There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.Big difference now is there are a couple hundred thousand houses down there along Galveston Bay. Not to mention a large chunk of the nation's refining capacity and the main NASA facility. This will not be a pleasant weekend for any of us. Ready for days or even weeks with no air conditioning?
We're not leaving. We are 60 miles inland. The kids and I can hole up under the stairs if the winds get too bad. Once the storm has passed and if we're too miserable, then we'll go to the relatives in Louisiana. They just had their power restored a few days ago after Gustav, and they are 200 miles inland from the Gulf. I will not get stuck in a massive traffic jam again.
Be sure to top off your tank tomorrow before heading in to work!
7 comments:
I just realized that the UK Guardian piece said I lived in Galveston, when in reality what I was referring to was being stuck in the World's Largest Traffic Jam.
Keep yourself and your kids safe, Lou.
A friend of a friend here in California deployed for hurricane relief this morning, he thought he was being sent to La. This afternoon he landed in Dallas and they sent him to San Antonio instead where (at least around 3pm PDT today) they were setting up a disaster evacuation center. For the life of me, I can't remember if they were thinking it was going to hit at Galveston or Corpus. All I remember thinking at the time was that "I remember recently reading something about that place at Lou Minatti's blog".
It seems to me that the location he mentioned jogged a memory of those large new mansions without a seawall, but that could be complete crap as this post proves my memory is spotty, at best.
Glad to remember that you just finished that new roof though!
I'll end with the same thought I started with, keep yourself and your kids safe, Lou.
Keep safe Lou.
I just offered a longtime friend from Corpus a place to stay if he needs it (I live in North Texas), and I've already thought up of alternate routes to take up here rather than 35/45 (take 281 north from S.A. to West of Fort Worth).
JVJ, Survivor of Hurricane Allen.
"I'd never live in California, they have earthquakes." Good luck, Lou.
Damn right on the Cali comment.
At least with eartquakes we have several days' warning.
Funny but when I lived in Santa Monica, I freaked out over earthquakes and the locals always quipped back "sure dude, but Houston is all hot and humid and stuff." My pat reply was "sure it is, but then I've never run naked and screaming at 3 in the morning 'oh my God, it's HUMID!'"
Still, the schools are closed Friday and I know my tuckus will be in front of the computer doing lesson planning. Sad, but on my day off I actually enjoy working. When I was a broker, I rarely had days off and I usually smoked, drank, and slept on those rare days. Kinda nice doing what you love. Still, I hate the idea of my kids getting behind a day....
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