The Census Bureau has a breakdown of population trends for US cities with populations of over 100,000 (.xls file). 74 of these cities saw a decline in population from June 2006-June 2007. Of those 74 cities, 21 are in California, 8 are in Florida, 4 are in Michigan. Rounding out the bottom is Columbus, Georgia.
The city with the greatest percentage gain was New Orleans, which isn't surprising since people are returning to the Crescent City after Katrina. The city with the greatest real increase in population was Houston. And based on other census data, Harris County alone has seen an additional 250,000 people over the past 3 years.
I keep telling ya, it's like 1980 all over. The energy bubble is gonna pop, Houston's gonna get hammered within 2-3 years. I don't believe the "It's different this time, really!" hype any more than I bought the Nasdaq or "real estate can only go up" hype. The only difference between now and 1980 is they aren't throwing up quite as many skyscrapers downtown. There are no plans for super-tall buildings. Otherwise, things are the same. Gross overbuilding of office warehouse complexes, way too many strip shopping centers (many of which are vacant), too many cookie cutter houses.
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7 comments:
Forget about an oil bust, what about the "snake oil" bust?? With the real estate market in the gutter, my guru materials that I paid over $35,000 for are now worth maybe $50. Ouch! ;-)
I can survive the weather here without heating or cooling so itsallgood - despite the lost decade.
The exocus continues up here in New Jersey. Taxes are rising, government corruption running rampamnt, Wall Street lay-offs and Pennsylvania stealing our industries.
It is going to be different this time in Houston. No one in the oil biz thinks that the $140/barrel is sustainable. Cap expenditures are based on the price being much lower. Remember, the top guys at the oil companies today were lower mgmt. 25 years ago and saw all of thier coworkers getting laid off. This industry is more conservative than back then.
I just read Tulipomania: The Story of the World's Most Coveted Flower & the Extraordinary Passions it Aroused by Mike Dash. This is a real page turner worth the read! At one time some people would mortgage their house against the worth of a tulip bulb.
As someone in the business and privy to what long term prices are being used to justify projects, I can say that jcr is right that there is a different attitude in the oil business now than in the 80's - at least at the majors. They learned their lesson. It won't be pretty, but won't be catastrophic either.
My concern is what is happening at the small and mid-level oil companies. That is where much of the growth has been, the most jobs created, and the least security for workers when the oil price comes down. They also tend to be doing business locally - in old fields onshore US & in the Gulf, where high prices are a requirement for profitability. What price are they counting on? Many of these outfits are privately owned. As an owner, making a few tens or hundreds of M$ for five years, then going belly up, is quite OK. If you're a worker, different story.
Personally, I'm quite aware that my skill set must transcend the oil business in case times go bad again, and I need to find greener pastures.
Interesting stats. The only problem is that they don't tell you where they are moving to. As someone who actually lives in CA, I can tell you that a lot of people here are hitting retirement and heading for the small towns in the Sierras and Northern California. Where they are not heading to is Houston. I lived in Houston for three years, and I couldn't wait to move back to California. $330k for a house in my area is a small price to pay for life without an AC running 24/7 nine months of the year.
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